The inflection point of the valuation industry det

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Papermaking: the upstream determines the valuation industry inflection point is approaching

the valuation of the paper industry is mainly determined by the upstream. The determinant of paper industry valuation is the determinant of profitability, which is composed of three levels of factors: raw material control, industry competition and company competitiveness. Valuation element 1: raw material control in terms of the cost that affects the gross profit margin. From the development process of domestic paper industry, we can see that since the 1990s, when paper products tend to be high-grade and wood pulp and imported waste paper have become important raw materials, China has had to import a large amount due to lack of pulp. Enterprises have the same cost base, and scale expansion has achieved large enterprises such as Chenming paper, Huatai Co., Ltd., sun paper and so on, During this period, there were basically no enterprises with raw material control power. At that time, the overall market supply was in short supply, and scale was the core of competitiveness

at the beginning of this century, the pioneers engaged in the integration of Forest Pulp and paper under the guidance of policies will reset the source of industry competitiveness and improve the international market situation to a higher level - Forest Pulp control. The competition pattern of the paper industry is undergoing major changes, and raw material control has become a new source of competitiveness and the core driving force to improve profitability. Valuation element 2: industry competition situation. In terms of product prices that affect the gross profit margin, the market supply-demand relationship is the object of investigation, which is divided into two situations: one is the natural supply-demand relationship of the market; The second is that the company relies on technological progress to take the high-end product route or implement differentiation strategy in order to seek the sub market with insufficient competition and obtain reasonable prices. The representative company is sun paper. In addition to high-strength Kraft linerboard and high-strength corrugated base paper, all major types of paper in the domestic paper industry have been surplus to varying degrees, and the price competition has become fierce, which has only occurred in recent years. When the capacity expansion rate exceeds the demand growth rate, as the high-strength Kraft linerboard and high-strength corrugated base paper market, which is still in the stage of short supply, its surplus will also occur sooner or later, and the profitability of its representative companies Nine Dragons Paper, Liwen paper and Jingxing paper will decline, and the downward valuation can be expected. Valuation element 3: company competitiveness. The profitability of each company varies according to its competitiveness. A typical example is Huatai Co., Ltd. in the paper industry, which enjoys obvious advantages of low cost and high efficiency in the industry with its perfect governance structure

<8 pressing plates are fixed with 2 screws respectively; Move 6 screws at both ends of the beam; Check the tightness of the screw drive chain every 6 months p> from the perspective of specific paper companies, sun paper is a workshop with leading coating technology; Jingxing paper industry is in short supply; A small part of Shanying paper products are in short supply, and the downstream carton is integrated; Huatai shares is in an industry with excess and leading competitiveness; Bohui paper industry is quasi integrated, and coating technology is improving; The industry where Silver Pigeon invests is balanced, with general competitiveness, and the tearing expansion speed is directly related to the stretching speed of the gripper; Hengfeng Paper industry has no growth, and Chenming Paper's industry is mostly surplus, and its scale may become inferior. In general, Yueyang paper is recommended, with attention to Huatai Co., Ltd. and sun paper

reprinted from: Guosen Securities lishixin

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