Glass prices have continued to weaken and fell sli

Since November, glass prices have continued to weaken and fell slightly

Market Review: last week, the building materials sector rose slightly by 0.9%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose slightly by 0.6%. After two weeks of sharp decline, it has stabilized and rebounded. Among them, last week, pipes and glass rose by 3.3% and 1.8% respectively, while infrastructure and cement both rose by 1.4%. The pipe sector mainly benefited from the centralized bidding of the Henan section of the PCCP project of the South-to-North Water Transfer. Last week, the decorative garden fell by 2.9%, and the whole plate fell by 13.7% in recent January, which was far lower than the market, which was consistent with our previous judgment

cement Market: last week, the cement prices in Nanjing and Nanning showed a correction, and the rest of the cities in East China and Central South region performed stably. When the cold winter is coming, the trend of cement price increase may end ahead of schedule, and the higher the cost in the next few months, the price performance may be mainly stable. If the cement price in East China and Central South China can be maintained at the current level, the performance of relevant companies in the region in the fourth quarter will be significantly better than that in the third quarter. Last week, only Beijing and Guiyang raised prices slightly in other regions, but the sustainability remains to be seen

glass Market: since November, glass prices have continued to weaken and fell slightly. In October, the price of flat glass increased significantly. It is expected that the "glass heavy oil soda ash price difference" has come out of the bottom, and the profitability of the company has been improved month on month (2) check whether the emergency stop switch is screwed up. Recently, the industry inventory bottomed out with the improvement of capacity utilization, which has formed a strong constraint on the rise of glass prices. Later, the main view of

is that among the segmented industries, the decoration and garden companies are more certain to have a high performance growth in 2012, and the cement companies with strong cycles and glass companies with slow growth are more certain to have a decline in performance. However, the former has a high valuation and weak investment attraction, and the latter two are currently at the bottom of the cyclical region with poor performance and high valuation, so the corresponding investment attraction is stronger. Decorative garden companies have adjusted by 12% in the past three months, much higher than the 4.5% of the Shanghai Shenzhen 300, which is in line with our previous judgment. As the high performance growth is expected, but the sustainability is not strong. Because the valuation is much higher than that of other industries, the recent valuation level has begun to return

due to the joint price increase in East China and Central South China, cement has begun to bear fruit, and relevant companies will directly benefit from it, and the performance has improved significantly month on month; The price hike in this region has come to an end temporarily. It is expected that the probability of maintaining the price at the current level is high, and the price war is unlikely to reappear for the time being

under the background of losses, the supply side of the glass industry gradually contracted, and finally ushered in price increases. The bottom of the enterprise's profitability can be basically established. It is recommended to pay active attention to the reversal of profits in October. Individual stock recommendations: cement is optimistic about East China's leading Conch Cement (600585) and Huaxin Cement (600801), and glass is optimistic about Qibin group (601636), whose performance is at a low point

risk tip: cement price war starts again; The increase in glass operating rate led to an increase in inventory. Zhonghua glass () Department