The inflection point of supply and demand in the h

2022-10-23
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The inflection point of supply and demand in the iron ore market highlights

at present, what is the economic situation of China's mining industry and the supply and demand situation of mineral products? What will the trend be in the second half of the year? The China Mining Federation recently organized relevant associations to hold a seminar on the analysis of the supply and demand situation of major mineral products in the first half of 2014, which analyzed the supply and demand situation of major mineral products, including coal, iron ore, ten non-ferrous metals, gold, etc., and formed a report

the overall operation of the mining economy is poor

in the first half of this year, affected by the slow growth of the world economy, the price, trade, mining investment and other indicators of China's main mineral products shrank, the growth rate of mineral products slowed down compared with last year, and the economic operation of some industries showed a stabilizing momentum. This is mainly reflected in: the problem of oversupply in the coal market has become increasingly prominent, the price has fallen sharply, the economic benefits of the industry have continued to decline, the losses of enterprises have further expanded, and the situation of coal economic operation has become more severe; The economic operation of the non-ferrous metal industry shows a stabilizing momentum, and is expected to continue the stabilizing trend; The tungsten market demand is still low, the price is fluctuating downward, the export of tungsten products has increased, the import continues to decline, the economic benefits decline, and enterprises generally have difficulties in operation; The inflection point of market supply and demand of iron ore is prominent, and the price has entered the downward channel, increasing the pressure on domestic mining enterprises; Gold prices continued to operate at a low level, and corporate profits and economic benefits were lower than those in the same period in 2013; The output of major chemical and mineral products continued to grow, inventories increased, prices were weak, while imports fell and exports increased; The output of non-metallic mineral products, except fluorite, which was flat and talc, decreased slightly, and the total demand showed a downward trend

output of main mineral products: in the first half of the year, the national coal output was 1.816 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; The national coal sales volume was 1.727 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. From January to may, the cumulative output of raw iron ore nationwide was 568 million tons, equivalent to 152 million tons of refined powder, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year; The inflection point of supply and demand in the iron ore market is prominent. From January to may, the output of pig iron was 301 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, equivalent to 497 million tons of iron ore demand. From January to may, the output of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals was 17.15 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.84%. It is expected that the output from January to June will be about 20million tons. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national tungsten concentrate output was 47266 tons from January to may, with a year-on-year increase of 2.44%. The tungsten mine output of the whole mine was generally stable. The national gold production reached 171.097 tons from January to may, an increase of 14.662 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 9.37% year-on-year. Among them, 137.155 tons of gold minerals were completed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.08%; Nonferrous by-product gold completed 33.942 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 25.05%

non metallic mineral products: the current mining capacity of graphite is 12million tons, and the beneficiation production capacity is 1.2 million tons. In 2013, the output of graphite was 540000 tons, accounting for 45% of the production capacity. From January to June, the national output was 180000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%. Fluorite produced 3.96 million tons (refined powder) in 2013, accounting for only 44% of the production capacity. In the first half of this year, the output was 1.98 million tons, basically the same as last year; The sales volume is 1.9 million tons and the inventory is 160000 tons. The output of talc from January to June was about 1.2 million tons, an increase of about 100000 tons year-on-year

in terms of major chemical mineral products: in the first half of the year, 190 phosphate mines above Designated Size produced 54.82 million tons of phosphate rock, with a year-on-year increase of 16%, still maintaining a rapid growth rate. The output of major phosphate rock producing provinces increased in the first six months. From January to June, 88 pyrite mining enterprises above Designated Size produced 8.5 million tons of pyrite, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, and the output of the main production provinces - Anhui and Guangdong decreased year-on-year. From January to June, 68 potash fertilizer production enterprises above Designated Size produced 2.48 million tons of potash fertilizer, with a year-on-year increase of 6%. The main production provinces Qinghai and Xinjiang showed a growth momentum

import and export: coal imports in the first half of the year were 159.87 million tons, an increase of 0.9% year on year; Exports were 3.16 million tons, down 22.4% year on year; The net import was 156.71 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.37 million tons, an increase of 1.5%. In terms of coal types, except for the increase of lignite imports, other types of coal show a downward trend. The total import and export trade volume of non-ferrous metals from January to May was US $65.2 billion, of which the import volume was US $41.7 billion, an increase of 1.79% year-on-year; The export volume was 23.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.06%. Tungsten exports totaled 8002.01 tons from January to may, with a year-on-year increase of 12.1%; From January to may, the cumulative export volume was 426 million yuan, an increase of 27.3% year-on-year; It is estimated that in the first half of the year, the export of tungsten products nationwide was about 9600 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 8%. Iron ore imports continued to grow. From January to may, 382.66 million tons of iron ore were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 60.59 million tons, an increase of 18.8%, and the price fell by 30%. In terms of non-metal, from January to may, talc exported 237500 tons, with an amount of US $61.7 million; Fluorite exports 150500 tons, amounting to US $44.8371 million; Graphite exports 52000 tons, with an amount of 44.36 million US dollars; Light burned magnesium exports 151400 tons, amounting to US $31.69 million; The heavy burned magnesium is 254900 tons, with an amount of US $72.1 million

the price change of mineral products is also not optimistic. According to statistics, China's coal price index was 143 on July 11, down 17.5 points year-on-year, 18.8 points lower than the beginning of the year, and 79.8 points lower than the historical peak in July 2008, with a decline of 35.2%. On the same day, the closing price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 500 yuan/ton ~ 510 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year; The average price of coking coal decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The national coal price has fallen to the level at the end of 2007. The price of iron ore also continued to decline. In May, the average import price of iron ore was 110.19 dollars/ton, down 4.16 dollars/ton month on month; The average import price in the first five months was 121.15 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1 US dollars/ton. On May 19, the price of imported ore fell below $100/ton, and on June 16, it fell below $90/ton. The price of imported ore continued to fluctuate and fall

the price of non-ferrous metals changes from rise to fall. In the first half of 2014, the price trend of six base metals of LME was differentiated, so it was necessary to consider the horizontal tensile testing machine. The three varieties of lead and aluminum fell further compared with the same period last year, while zinc, tin and nickel rebounded. Zinc prices, in particular, rose by 5% in the first half of the year in anticipation of the closure of most mines in the world in the future

tungsten prices are also in shock decline. In the first half of the year, the domestic tungsten concentrate price fluctuated between 106000 yuan/ton and 117500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 111100 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. It is noteworthy that in the first half of the year, the high price difference of tungsten concentrate reached 11500 yuan/ton, with the largest decline of 9.79%. The price trend of apt is consistent with that of tungsten concentrate. In the first half of the year, the average price of apt was 172 thousand yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%

with the explosive growth of gold jewelry demand and the weakening of speculative factors in the derivatives market, the price of gold has begun to stabilize. The gold price in the international market has fluctuated between $1200/oz and $1400/oz since the beginning of the year. From January to may, the cumulative trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai gold exchange was 5397.655 tons, an increase of 22.34% year-on-year; The cumulative turnover of all gold varieties was 1389.525.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The cumulative trading volume of gold futures contracts on Shanghai Futures Exchange was 19752.86 tons, an increase of 240.19% year-on-year; The cumulative turnover was 510.2398.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 192.94%

the prices of major non-metallic minerals and major chemical mineral products continue to fall. In the first half of the year, the price of light burned magnesium was 660 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 5%; The price of heavy burned magnesium was 750 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 5%; The price of point melting magnesium was 5000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. The price of ordinary firefly stone is 1600 yuan/ton ~ 2000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; The price of fine ore is 1650 yuan/ton ~ 1800 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. The price of asbestos is basically the same as last year. The price index of phosphate rock in June decreased by 14.4 year-on-year, 1.1 month on month, and the price was about 450 yuan/ton; Pyrite decreased by 2.6 year-on-year, increased by 0.2 month on month, and the price was about 320 yuan/ton; Potassium chloride decreased by 26.2 year-on-year, 0.5 month on month, and the price was about 2140 yuan/ton

the situation is not optimistic and the downward pressure is great

coal industry: from the perspective of domestic demand, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and other non fossil energy power generation maintained double-digit growth in the first five months of this year, while thermal power growth was only 4.2%. With the continuous improvement of environmental protection and governance, and the optimization of energy structure, the proportion of fossil energy consumption will gradually decline. It is estimated that the consumption of electric coal will be reduced by more than 20million tons in 2014. At the same time, due to the impact of oversupply in the international coal market and low coal prices, coal imports may continue to remain high. On the whole, the contradiction between the slowdown of coal demand and the release of coal production capacity in the second half of 2014 has become increasingly prominent, the downward pressure on prices may continue to increase, and the operation of coal enterprises will be more difficult

nonferrous metal industry: it is expected that China's nonferrous metal production will still show a steady growth trend in the second half of the year, but the growth rate will fall back; The global non-ferrous metals are still in a pattern of oversupply, but investment continues to gather towards processing; Non ferrous metal overcapacity, rising production costs, the pressure to reverse the decline in non-ferrous metal industry profits in the second half is still great; The price of non-ferrous metals will show an upward trend at the bottom, but there are differences in the price changes of various metal varieties, especially the prices of lead, zinc, nickel and other metals are expected to continue to rise, while the price of aluminum is supported by costs, and the price has risen compared with the first half of the year

tungsten: from the perspective of supply, the national output of tungsten concentrate has increased due to the continuous production of technological transformation projects implemented by resource integration and the increase of the comprehensive recovery of associated tungsten, low-grade tungsten and tungsten containing tailings. On the other hand, due to the resource depletion of some tungsten mining enterprises, the output of tungsten concentrate will decline. The superposition of the two factors is expected that the supply capacity of China's tungsten mines will continue to maintain a balanced situation in the second half of the year. From the perspective of tungsten mine demand, the global economic recovery will help to drive the growth of tungsten mine consumption. The continuous production of domestic new and technologically upgraded downstream tungsten smelting and processing projects, especially the development of strategic emerging industries and high-end equipment manufacturing industry, will continue to drive and stabilize tungsten consumption demand. Therefore, in 2014, China's total tungsten mining volume continued to remain stable, and it is unlikely that the tungsten market price will fluctuate significantly, which is generally stable and rising

steel and iron ore: domestic demand, except for a few industries of automobile and shipbuilding, performed well, while other industries performed generally or even declined. It is expected that the output of crude steel will remain high in the second half of the year, the growth of steel demand will slow down, the contradiction between market supply and demand will be prominent, and the price of raw materials will be weak and volatile. If crude steel output remains high, steel prices will hardly rebound significantly in the short term. The output of iron ore in the third quarter is expected to continue to grow. The delivery capacity of Australia's three major mines will increase by 100 million tons compared with last year, and the new capacity will be released in succession. The situation of oversupply in the global iron ore market has been established, and the port inventory will continue to maintain a high level. It is expected that there is still room for iron ore prices to fall in the second half of the year

main chemical mineral products: the output of phosphate rock and potassium fertilizer, the main chemical mineral products, remained increasing throughout 2014, but the growth rate will further slow down. The output of pyrite is the same as that of previous years. Specifically, the output of phosphorus ore is still more than 100 million tons, the output of potassium fertilizer will reach 5 million tons, and the output of pyrite will continue to maintain at about 17 million tons. The market supply is sufficient, the price is relatively stable, and the pattern of weak consolidation is still maintained. Excluding coated paper, household paper, newsprint and special paper, the output of cultural paper is 27.5 million tons

there are prominent problems, which need to be actively dealt with

generally speaking, the prices of major domestic mineral products continued to decline in the first half of this year, and the prices of many mineral products have been close to or even lower than the cost price, causing losses to enterprises

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